November 2023 - A remarkable month

5 mins

Stock markets and the economy

Publié le 04/12/2023 Mis à jour le 21/02/2024

The global equity markets were up sharply in November, recording their best monthly return of the past three years, as measured by the MSCI All Country World Index in U.S. dollars. Their performance was due mainly to a decline in bond yields combined with investors’ conviction that the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks were about to win their war against inflation. In the United States, the inflation rate continued to fall amid increasing signs that the U.S. economy was cooling, with data showing that consumer spending and the job market were slowing.

	Closing 30-11-23	Variation vs 31-10-23	Variation vs 31-12-22
Interest rate in Canada (%)
Key rate
Key rate	5.00	0.00	0.75
Commodities ($US)
Oil (WTI)
Oil (WTI)	$82.46	0.2% ▲	2.5% ▲
Gold
Gold	$1,993.50	-0.6% ▼	10.0% ▲
Currencies
EUR/CAD
EUR/CAD	1.48	0.8% ▲	2.4% ▲
JPY/CAD
JPY/CAD	0.01	0.0% ▲	-11.3% ▼
USD/CAD
USD/CAD	1.36	-2.1% ▼	0.4% ▲

Sources: Bank of Canada, Fundata

CANADIAN MARKET

7.5% (S&P/TSX Composite 30-11-2023)

Even though Canada’s economy contracted unexpectedly in the third quarter, its stock market advanced on optimism that the Fed had finished raising interest rates and that the Bank of Canada might follow suit. The S&P/TSX Composite Index recorded its best monthly performance since the start of the year with a return of 7.5%. All sectors, without exception, were up during the period. Financial services and information technology were the biggest gainers.

The Canadian bond market also benefited considerably from this context, with the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index returning 4.3%, its best monthly performance in almost 10 years.¹

AMERICAN MARKET

6.6% (S&P 500 30-11-2023 in CAD)

The U.S. market had a remarkable November. The S&P 500 Index surged 9.1% in U.S. dollars, its fourth-best month of the past 12 years. Information technology and financial services contributed the most to the return, with only the energy sector posting losses during the month. As already noted, the performance was due mainly to the decline in bond yields and the release of encouraging economic data.

Even so, the loonie’s strength against the greenback reduced the gains, such that the S&P 500 ended the month with a return of 6.6% for Canadian investors.

EUROPEAN MARKET

7.3% (MSCI Europe 30-11-2023 in CAD)

Hopes that the European Central Bank had also completed its hiking cycle buoyed the European market. In addition, the outlook for Germany improved, suggesting that Europe’s largest economy may stabilize as inflation eases. The MSCI Europe Index closed the month with a return of 5.8% in local currencies and 7.3% in Canadian dollars, with industrials and financials being the biggest winners.

ASIAN MARKET

5.3% (MSCI AC Asia-Pacific 30-11-2023 in CAD)

The prevailing sentiment also boosted the Asian market. The MSCI All Country Asia Pacific Index ended November with a return of 5.4% in local currencies and 5.3% in Canadian dollars. Information technology and industrials contributed the most to the return.

EMERGING MARKETS

5.5% (MSCI Emerging Markets 30-11-2023 in CAD)

Emerging markets, especially South Korea and Taiwan, benefited from the strong performance of the developed markets. In November, South Korea’s exports appear to have increased for the second month in a row. Specifically, semiconductor exports rose for the first time in 16 months. As a result, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index returned 6.2% in local currencies and 5.5% in Canadian dollars. All sectors made gains, led by information technology.

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1. The monthly return on the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index as at January 31, 2015, was 4.6%.

Sources: Bank of Canada, FTSE International Limited, S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and MSCI Inc.

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