| Closing 31-10-24 |
Variation vs 30-09-24 |
Variation vs 31-12-23 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest rate in Canada (%) | |||
| Key rate | |||
| Key rate | 3.75 | -0.50 ▼ | -1.25 ▼ |
| Commodities ($US) | |||
| Oil (WTI) | |||
| Oil (WTI) | $69.26 | 1.6% ▲ | -3.3% ▼ |
| Gold | |||
| Gold | $2,743.97 | 4.2% ▲ | 33.0% ▲ |
| Currencies | |||
| EUR/CAD | |||
| EUR/CAD | 1.51 | 0.3% ▲ | 3.3% ▲ |
| JPY/CAD | |||
| JPY/CAD | 0.01 | -3.7% ▼ | -2.4% ▼ |
| USD/CAD | |||
| USD/CAD | 1.39 | 3.0% ▲ | 5.1% ▲ |
Sources: Bank of Canada, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
CANADIAN MARKET
0.9% (S&P/TSX Composite 31-10-2024)The Canadian market posted a modest 0.9% gain as measured by the S&P/TSX Composite Index, with support from the energy and materials sectors, which benefited from volatile oil and metal prices, particularly because of tensions in the Middle East.
Canadian bonds had a more difficult month, with the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index down 1.0%. The decline was due to Canada’s steepening yield curve, in parallel with that of the United State, as unexpectedly strong U.S. economic data caused investors to rethink their expectations of Fed rate cuts. Economic resilience, combined with muted expectations of a rate cut, put negative pressure on Canadian bonds.
U.S. MARKET
2.2% (S&P 500 31-10-2024 in CAD)The United States continued to report surprisingly robust economic indicators, including solid employment and annual GDP growth. As already stated, this strength has reduced the prospects for further rate cuts by the Fed this year. Combined with uncertainty over the presidential election and fears of inflationary policies, this context added to market volatility.
The S&P 500 Index returned -0.9% in U.S. dollars, despite gains by the financials, communication services and energy sectors. For Canadian investors, however, the greenback’s appreciation turned the loss into a 2.2% gain.
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
-2.4% (MSCI EAEO 31-10-2024 in CAD)The international markets were held back by difficult economic and geopolitical conditions. The MSCI EAFE Index ended the month with a return of -1.6% in local currencies and -2.4% in Canadian currency. As a reminder, the MSCI EAFE Index measures the performance of developed markets in Europe, Australia and the Far East.
Europe saw heightened economic uncertainty. In the Netherlands, ASML, a leading semiconductor company, revised its 2025 outlook downward on weaker demand in non-artificial intelligence segments. In Germany and France, high energy costs and lower exports to China continued to hold back growth.
In Japan, the manufacturing sector also suffered because of weak Chinese demand.
EMERGING MARKETS
-1.3% (MSCI Emerging Markets 31-10-2024 in CAD)The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 2.7% in local currencies and 1.3% in Canadian dollars. China, in particular, detracted from the return, because its stimulus measures were still directed mainly at the property sector without strong action to stimulate consumption. The lack of support for domestic demand continued to weigh on investor confidence. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also contributed to investor nervousness, increasing the risks for economies dependent on energy imports.
